Earlier today I had some interaction with some that saw this from Frank Luntz:
My Initial Response:
APPLES VERUS WATERMELONS
When I said that it is comparing apples to watermelons, that is a very valid comparison. Luntz is saying that he lost so much.
The truth is that the numbers Luntz is using are for from the fivethirtyeight.com blog. They are easy to look at and review. (I am going to call it 538 from here on out for simplicity.)
Trump did not lose eight points. There was a swing of 8.3 percentage points when you look at the averages between Trump’s number and Carly’s number.
That is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT to ONLY Carly. She was so down in the polls, she barely made the stage.
It was only MINOR in its significance to Trump. First – TRUMP did not lose 8 points or 8.3 points. It is a swing that can be found by adding Trumps negative 3.1 to Carly’s positive 5.2. Luntz used the number “8 points.”
IS THE CNN POLL SO OFF THAT IT SHOULD BE THROWN OUT AND AN OUTLIER?
While Luntz and 538 both slam Zogby to some degree or another, it is very easy to say that the CNN poll is actually far more problematic. It’s numbers are so different from the other polls, how could it be right?
Either throw BOTH OUT or LEAVE BOTH IN. But, Zogby ultimately made the call and all eight polls are included.
Most of the numbers on this spreadsheet are WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR for every poll. Some of the CNN numbers are beyond, but the rest are within on each poll.
How is it right to sum these? That is sort of what Real Clear Politics does, so I’ll accept it.
The Elephant in the Room is the Missing Watermelon:
How can this chart be shown if the overall candidate percentage per poll is now shown?
If you did not have any information other than what is on the 538 web page, you would not get that Donald Trump is the one to beat. He is from 50% to 164,900% better than ALL OF THE CANDIDATES when you look at what these candidates got in the polls and you compare it to Trump’s number.
When I said he is comparing apples to watermelons, that is because he is suggesting that what is on that one chart negates his huge poll standings. This chart is the apple. Trumps dominance in all of the polls is the watermelon. Or maybe – the leading elephant in the room that just might get the nomination and be the next POTUS.
ANOTHER ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: MEDIA BIAS IN THE DEBATES IS BACKFIRING
The narrative of both debates was “somebody’s got to take out Trump!”
Whether you agree or not with my opinion, I believe that Megyn Kelly did make an attempt to take out Trump. All of us in my Trump camp saw it. We recognized it. Then she played the victim card. Now she is playing the vengeful victim daily on her show. (Maybe she should see someone about it?) She is trying to destroy him.
The CNN debate was all about destroying Trump. So many questions directed to others were about Trump. Ask Carly about Lucent and HP. Don’t ask her about what Trump may or may not have said to a reporter he though was “cool” enough to talk in front of when Trump wasn’t on the record. That was a cheap shot by that reporter, and Carly using it shows what a worthless candidate she really is.
These narratives have an impact on the polls. If Megyn had not gone there in the first debate and had never played a victim, and had CNN not gone there with Carly’s face, we might have a totally different poll situation. By trying to destroy Trump, they have made him stronger. By trying to destroy the candidate we believed in, you only made us more committed – and forgiving.
I am just as much for Ted Cruz, and there is a whole other story that could be written there. Not yet. He is brilliant and will almost certainly bring this one down to the wire – long after Carly returns to her life of whatever it is she does. Or did.