Stay strong… Polls will rise & fall, but we win!
Those of us that support Trump that have been around politics for a while understand how polling works. We also understand how the GOP party nomination system works. We further understand that as candidates drop out, the polls continually change. I wanted to explain what is likely to happen over the next few weeks and months as this campaign proceeds.
Likely you noted the exit of both Governor Rick Perry and Governor Scott Walker from the race. Both were angry that Trump is in the race, sucking up all of the attention, while they had all interest (and money) in their campaigns dry up. They were angry. Perry was not complimentary of Trump and likely cannot ever overcome his relationship with Trump should Trump become the nominee – which I think will happen. Walker made comments as he left the race targeted to help others (Rubio) gain more support so that Trump’s campaign collapses.
The first take-away I want to make sure you understand is that the most likely candidates to drop out at this point are the ones that will be pushed into dropping out by the GOP establishment. That establishment will push them out so they can direct all establishment support toward one candidate of their choice. That candidate will be either their first choice, Jeb Bush or their second choice, Marco Rubio. As lesser establishment candidates drop out, watch for them to make similar statements to what we got from Walker. Watch their campaign advisors go to Jeb or Marco. Again – the GOP establishment does not want a Trump and they know the only way to prevent a Trump GOP nomination is to get all of their support down to one or two establishment candidates.
When that happens from the establishment, watch for one or the other of them (Jeb or Marco) to start to rise into second place in the polls.
I think Ted Cruz AND (more importantly to Trump) Ben Carson will stay in for the duration until we have a nominee picked.
I think that Carly Fiorina will drop out before the first primary, but I could still be wrong. She might get money from the establishment to make sure she stays in.
This split of candidates going into the first actual primaries is highly critical. If there are too many “non-politicians” remaining, then that will make Bush or Rubio look stronger in comparison because the non-politicians will be splitting the vote a bit too far. Like I mentioned above, the lesser establishment candidates are going to be under increased pressure to get out to make room for a single, dominant candidate for the establishment.
The polls will rise and fall for Trump over the next few months. Be strong. Realize that there is a coordinated effort to make sure Trump eventually falls out of the race. The only reason they treat Carly Fiorina with any respect is that they think she is pulling voters away from Trump. I don’t think so. They know they can destroy her when the time comes as her “record” is very poor. Personally, I think she pulls from both sides, so I don’t think it is to any one candidate’s benefit for her to be in or out of the race. I see her fading quickly.
How I think it is all going to shake out:
- I think Rubio will be the final establishment candidate up against Trump.
- I think Jeb has enough money to start the primary season and will be there for maybe three solid weeks of primaries, dropping out and sending his support to Rubio.
- I think the media will get on the Rubio bandwagon and pretend that he is the likely nominee, while Trump is number one all of this time.
- I think that Ben Carson will hang on too long and will not drop out. I think people will talk to him about being a third party candidate. He is fueled by the religious right that does not see this election as about freedom. They see it as about how Carson will bring Christianity back into our daily lives as a country. Carson is Trump’s biggest threat. If he stays too strong, a Rubio could overtake Trump. If he fades or exits, then Trump gets it without question.
Back to the Polls:
It’s not going to be a cake walk all of the way. I think we are going to stay on top most of the time. I think that we have to be strong, through good polls and bad. Be ready for anything. We will win.